Brazil is heading towards a scarce sequence of increasing coffee yields

Brazil is expected to record its third annual augment in coffee production this year, a scarce sequence that has been seen only seven times in the 144-year history of coffee in the world’s largest producer and exporter of beans, according to data compiled by Reuters.

Experts say the positive sequence is likely to be extended for another year in 2025, mainly due to growing production of Robusta beans in the country, which has historically produced the milder Arabica coffee favored by upscale cafes. Robusta coffee is widely used to produce instant coffee.

Brazilian coffee production usually alternates between years of high and low production, in the two-year Arabica cycle. Arabica coffee trees produce less in a year after a good harvest and vice versa.

According to experts, this cycle was interrupted by extreme weather conditions: severe drought followed by severe frosts that hit Brazilian coffee fields around 2020 and 2021.

Since then, the country has produced larger crops every year. The improvement is due to the employ of some post-frost tillage techniques, such as pruning and greater employ of irrigation, particularly in Robusta fields, to better cope with arid weather.

“Growth is a reality. … Without a doubt, next year’s harvest will also be larger if the growth sequence lasts four years,” said Marcio Ferreira, president of the Cecafe export group.

Analysts see growing Robusta production in Brazil as a major contributor to more stable and growing overall coffee production. Robusta trees do not have biennial variability in Arabica production.