At the time of writing this, the futures price for coffee in the commodity market is $2.90 per poundjust over $1.20 down from the high seen in tardy 2025. While the decline appears steep, the increased price was primarily due to global tariffs introduced by the U.S. government in April, so the decline is more likely to normalize following the removal of tariffs. Nevertheless, experts fear that the price of coffee will fall even further and may even reach $2.00 or below.
As reported Reutersthese concerns were recently expressed at the National Coffee Association’s 2026 convention, held over the weekend in Tampa, Florida. Many experts have made comparisons to another commodity, cocoa. In 2024, just like last year for coffee, cocoa market prices were at record highs, and when all was said and done, they were down 70%. One strategist at DeCarley Trading said that “I would be shocked if that didn’t happen,” adding, “I really think coffee is the modern cocoa.” Strategist Carley Garner assumed that prices would fall to $2 by the end of the year.
An analyst at Avere Commodities thinks it could fall even further. Digby Beatson-Hird states that he expects the price to drop to $1.80.
These predictions were somewhat reinforced by a recent NCA survey of U.S. coffee consumers, which found that coffee prices influence purchasing decisions. 61% of respondents have taken steps to reduce their coffee expenses by visiting coffee shops less often, switching to cheaper brands and preparing more coffee at home. However, despite the decline in awareness, the study found that coffee consumption levels remained unchanged.
The expected decline is also partly due to Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, which is expected to produce a rich harvest in the coming harvest. The additional supply helps replenish warehouses, simultaneously increasing supply and thus lowering the price.
So this could be another year of unpredictable prices. However, a drop to $2.00 or less is significant. It falls well below $2.50, the Specialty Coffee Association’s break-even point, a number that is itself almost a decade ancient and therefore likely not to be representative of the current break-even point.
