Arabica coffee production is expected to decline by about 80% by 2050 due to climate change
Craving a cup of coffee in the morning? Globally, consumers drink more than 2.2 billion cups a day. Someone grows all that coffee: More than 100 million farmers worldwide produce coffee. (UF/IFAS photo)
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Craving a cup of joe in the morning? Globally, consumers drink more than 2.2 billion cups a day. Someone grows all that coffee: More than 100 million farmers around the world produce coffee.
Coffee beans consumed around the world come from two species: Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora, also known as Robusta (or Conilon) coffee. Historically, coffee lovers have preferred Arabica beans for their distinctive flavor and aroma, he said Felipe Ferraoadjunct scientist in horticultural sciences at the University of Florida.
But by 2050, about 80% of Arabica production is expected to decline due to climate change. So Ferrao and colleagues from France (RD2 Vision) and Brazil (Incaper Institution) are investigating whether they can find alternative coffee varieties.
Scientists see two alternatives for Arabica: first, adapting coffee-growing practices to the recent environment, and second, focusing on species that are more resilient. New research conducted by UF/IFAS shows that Robusta coffee can be a good candidate to complement Arabica coffee.
“If we consider that currently about 60% of coffee beans sold worldwide come from Coffea arabica, the coffee industry is looking for alternatives,” said Ferrao, the lead author of the recent study. “In this way and in this way, Robusta coffee emerges as a good candidate.”
He added that over the past few decades, Robusta coffee production has increased by about 30%, representing a significant improvement in the coffee supply chain.
“Overall, this species produces more coffee than Arabica, using fewer inputs, such as fertilizer and water. As its name suggests, the plant is more resilient,” Ferrao said. “While demand for Robusta coffee is unlikely to decrease, our biggest challenge is to meet the demand for quality and productivity required by the coffee chain. In this sense, genetic and breeding studies can provide the basic elements to better understand the diversity and factors that affect quality.”
The study found that Robusta is a very adaptable variety and grows at high altitudes, which means it combines good production and taste results.
“Robusta is adaptable because it has a lot of diversity, so you can choose different plants, depending on the weather conditions,” Ferrao said. “With that in mind, we can shed some featherlight on a fundamental question about the coffee of the future: climate-smart coffee.”
Scientists suggest that Robusta may combine the following three elements for coffee varieties:
- Sustainability – produce more with less.
- Quality – good taste meeting consumer requirements.
- Plasticity – the ability to adapt to recent production systems.
Now that scientists have had good results growing Robusta in Brazil, they are testing whether they can grow it in Florida.
“Here in Florida, we have several trials to test both Robusta and Arabica in different locations. Compared to Brazil, differences in soil properties, rainfall patterns, temperature and weather patterns will certainly affect coffee production and quality,” Ferrao said.
To test coffee as an alternative crop for Florida growers, he and his UF/IFAS team are trying to grow coffee in Tropical Research and Education Center (I PASS) in Homestead. At TREC, Ferrao works with Jonathan Crane, a professor and deputy director of the center, and Ali Sarkhosh, an associate professor who lives in Gainesville. Both are colleagues in the horticultural science department.
Ferrao is also trialing coffee in Pierson, Volusia County, and is producing indoors using high tunnels in northern Florida, the first such study the company has conducted under such diverse conditions in Florida.
–Brad Buck, UF/IFAS
