Climate change is an existential threat to the future of coffee, and for many of us in coffee-consuming countries, it is seen as just that: a future threat. The most renowned statistic concerns the year 2050, when it is predicted that half of all coffee-producing land will no longer be suitable for this purpose. But a novel study shows that the effects of climate change are already here and causing almost an additional two months of days a year with heat that is harmful to coffee.
As reported Guardianthe report is a piece of work Central Climate,” “an independent group of scientists and communicators who research and present the facts about the changing climate and its impact on people’s lives,” according to the nonprofit organization’s website. To do this, they analyzed the number of days in coffee-growing regions where temperatures exceeded 30°C (86°F) between 2021 and 2025. They then used “ERA5 reanalysis temperature data” and “alternative temperatures used” from their own Climate Change Index estimates to assess how many of those days were a direct result of carbon pollution.
30°C is the upper end of the optimal temperature range for Robusta trees, although they can tolerate higher doses in lower doses. Arabica, on the other hand, has maximum tolerance at a temperature of around 27°C. Exceeding optimal growth temperatures will result in additional stress on the tree and reduced crop quality.
They found that the top five producing countries – Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia – which together account for 75% of global production, averaged 57 extra days with temperatures above 30°C per year. For example, Brazil saw a 60% augment, from 117 days of excessive heat to 187. Indonesia had the largest percentage augment, over 130%, from 56 to 129.
Climate-related problems are further exacerbated by the fact that, according to The Guardian, compact farmers are responsible for between 60% and 80% of global coffee production, but receive only 0.36% of climate change adaptation funds.
The extent of the damage caused by additional days of excessive heat is not quantified, but the trend is disturbing. The coffee bar is getting heated. Not in some theoretical future. Not in 2050. Here and now.
